Why Malcolm Gladwell Doesn’t Understand Michael Phelps
Success Myths of The Rich and Famous
Where We Are Determines How Far We Go
We’ve come a long way since ‘making it’ referred to romantic conquest, as in Bread’s, the 70s soft rock band’s hit, “I wanna make it with you.” In the present, ‘making it’ has a more Gordon Gekko ring, signifying a high stakes game of accomplishment. Intrigued by this, we embarked on a mission to uncover which is the true essence of making it, love or lucre?
In order to get to the bottom of the success pyramid scheme, we handpicked fifty highly accomplished individuals from diverse backgrounds, encompassing various nationalities, ages, genders, ethnicities, races, and fields of endeavor.
Believe me, all of them have made it.
This remarkable group included Nobel Prize laureates, Fortune 50 CEOs, Olympic athletes, University Presidents, Four Star Generals, and Heads of State, a a few billionaires sprinkled in on top. We recorded their compelling narratives and used them to illuminate what were the driving forces behind achievements and then tried to parse what did and didn’t contribute to success. The theory was akin to the soil and climate of a vineyard. The same grape planted a football field away, albeit cultivated in the same exact environment, would likely have a very different flavor and character. Why we asked? What is the fundamental cause of what the academic world calls “outcome differentiation?”
What fascinated us most wasn’t the heights they achieved or the stories of overcoming challenges. Instead, their examples challenged commonly held notions promoted by the likes of self help gurus like Malcolm Gladwell and Stephen Covey. We started to question if the authors had omitted a crucial piece of the puzzle to make success appear more complicated than it truly is?
Take, for example, the case of basketball players against the universe of exceptionally tall individuals. If you huddled all the tallest people in the world, those over 7 feet tall, which comes to about 3,000, only 450 are NBA players. It helps to point out that this height level accounts for only 17% of NBA players or in other words, more than eight out of ten are under seven feet tall. Extreme height is not a ticket to basketball stardom, in other words. In fact, among the world’s tallest, only about one in 60 earns a living playing basketball. The remainder, we presume, spend all their time explaining why they don’t play the sport.
Contrary to the other most prevalent myth, highly successful individuals didn’t give undue importance to Stephen Covey’s “Seven Habits of Highly Effective People.” On closer inspection, all of Covey’s habits, while undeniably valuable, echo ancient wisdom. For instance, the premier habit, “Be Proactive,” echoes the sentiment of Laozi (Lao Tzu) from the 6th century BC: “A journey of a thousand miles begins with a single step,” without the poetic flourish.
Our investigation led us to an unexpected conclusion: the belief that success is dictated by single causes such as birth circumstance, natural ability, or systemic advantage is misleading. We discovered that it isn’t one thing, nor is failure due to a single cause. While many factors play a significant role in the arc of our lives, much like height in basketball, they are one of many members of a success team.
Success, we found, is a complex interplay, an ecosystem if you will. Anyone can argue convincingly that one factor makes the difference, but that is usually a signal that our memory does not want to be bothered. Is it any wonder why the readers of Gladwell and Covey feel good after finishing their books (if indeed they went past the first chapter) but shortly later revert to the old habits and ways?
This realization led us to question Gladwell’s study on Canadian hockey. It presents a neatly packaged counterargument to our belief that success is a many splendored thing.
Canadian youth hockey is Gladwell’s success lab. He believes that players born early in the year can have as much as an eleven month headstart over later birthdate babies. Gladwell concludes that success in hockey boils down to when you’re born: bigger babies, better coaches.
The rich get richer.
The deterministic system where boys born earlier and therefore wind up as professional hockey players seemed a bit too neatly wrapped in ribbon to suit us, so we took a look under the Gladwellian hood to see if some parts were missing.
In the field of Successology, no star shines brighter than Gladwell’s, author of Outliers — the story of success. He believes that ‘making it’ or the good life, comes down to whether you are a member of the right club and that random accidents pave the way to membership. “It is those who are successful who are most likely to be given the kinds of special opportunities that lead to further success. It’s the rich who get the biggest tax breaks. It’s the best students who get the best teaching and most attention. And the biggest nine- and ten-year-olds get the most coaching and practice.”
Gladwell’s study concluded that the birthdates of Canadian junior hockey players were the cause of success. But the truth about success, like so many things in this world, turns out to be a labyrinthine enigma that does not lend itself to one stop shopping.
Our findings differed from those revealed by Malcolm Gladwell and introduced an intriguing counterargument to his theory on success.
Men and women who reach the pinnacle of achievement are often shrouded in illusion because we focus on the goal, the effect, and not the climb, the cause. We spend all our time observing them ‘make it’ but forget to ask how was it made?
Beneath the illusion of success lies a world of fierce competition and steep mountainous terrain. The climb to the top is treacherous, filled with obstacles and pitfalls that threaten to bring the aspirant crashing down. In order to succeed, numerous factors come into play.
Let’s start with a fact even Gladwell would agree with, Canada is hockey. According to leading sports blog Joel Prosser, more than half of the NHL players are born in Canada. Even players born in the United States and Europe are increasingly playing junior hockey in Canada to improve their chances of being drafted.
Prosser looked at a list of hockey greats starting from the 1980s. He purposely chose the last generation — roughly 1980 to the present — to pick an All-Canadian team comprised of 12 forwards, six defensemen, and two goalies. A list that includes Wayne Gretzky, Mario Lemieux, and Martin Brodeur, for example.
The field was limited to 1980 for a few reasons. First, the ’80s were the start of the modern era of hockey. Players started training harder and being more professional, and the money was also increasing. Second, searching further back in time, the harder it was to compare players. Some players from the early ’80s played against players who were still playing by 2011.
Start with Gladwell’s assumption that being born in January is the difference between success and failure in hockey. Yet, according to Prosser’s research, in the case of actual hockey success, the Gladwellians born in Q1 (January through March), which includes Wayne Gretzky, end up in last place among the top 20. This compares to the babies born in Q4, a list that includes Mario Lemieux and six others, who dominate the top 20. Being a Libra is liberating — at least in ice hockey.
Here are the birthdate distributions:
- January — March — 4 players
- April — June — 4 players
- July — September — 5 players
- October — December — 7 players
If you’re a better person or a hockey mom, remember that October is the best month if you want your son to be a pro hockey player. But there is one more thing you’ll need to keep in mind.
The study we conducted challenges the ideas presented by Gladwell regarding the concept of success. He believes it’s about the forest and not the trees. The bottom line is that birthdate hardly matters. In fact, what really makes the difference between winners and losers in hockey was not the forest or the trees, it was the dirt — Canada.
Ultimately, we found that Canada’s unique hockey culture is what breeds success. It is a place that singularly provides the unique environment that fosters the development of exceptional players, including promoting best practices and good habits, because in Canada, more so than anywhere else in the world, hockey is life. If everyone around you is playing their hearts out, your game will be superior in ways we cannot begin to imagine and not just on the ice rink.
Look at the example of Michael Phelps, the undisputed Olympic Gold Medalist of all time. His prowess in the pool can be attributed to several factors, most notably natural ability. But examining his life more closely during the interview with Phelps, it became quite clear that another reason lay hidden beneath all that gold on his chest.
The North Baltimore Aquatic Center, where Phelps embarked on his swimming career at the tender age of seven, produces more Olympians than any other municipal swim center in the country. It has earned a rightful reputation as an Olympic feeder that has the ability to nurture and develop exceptional talent. It was where Phelps met his coach, the renowned Bob Bowman, a multiple-time Coach of the Year awardee.
It’s no wonder that with his talent and that kind of foundation, Phelps rocketed to the top of the Olympic high board. We refer to this as the phenomenon of right place, right mind. Phelps was most likely destined to be a highly skilled swimmer. But the North Baltimore Aquatic Center (NBAC) transformed him into the greatest of all time.
Through our research we arrived at a compelling conclusion: success is the product of an environment that fosters the right mindset rather than merely relying on superior habits that lack a foundation and are soon forgotten.
Surrounded by a community of like-minded individuals which also attracted top-notch coaching in an atmosphere of excellence, Phelps was able to push beyond the limits of his astonishing talent. In contrast, without the right environment for those habits of discipline and determination to thrive, success at the highest levels can be elusive. Let me explain.
If you happen to be born in Alabama, your son’s hockey aspirations won’t matter. Because it’s not a great hockey culture and there will be an artificial cap on how good he can become. On the other hand, if the game is football, then Alabama is just the right place to be. It ranks number five among NFL player origin, although in overall population it is #24. Alabama is a place highly correlated with football success. That was the kind of finding we were looking for to confirm our view that the best habit is the right habitat.
The bottom line is that where you plant yourself matters. If you aim for success, or if you wish your children to excel, skip the tennis lessons or summer camps. Instead, place them where a constant “success moat” — what Warren Buffett calls the place where everybody plays your game, and is driven to perform at the highest level. It’s there that they will rise to new heights because being the best depends on being in the best place.
Otherwise, they’ll be skating on thin ice.
